Based on my consulting, owning a space, and running a local coworking alliance where we are pretty open with our numbers, I agree that a lot of spaces will be cash flow positive by the 13th month.
This really depends on several factors. Most coworking spaces today are over 75% offices. Offices are easier to sell because they are taking market share versus creating a new market like hot desking plans.
A lot spaces today are larger, around 20,000 sq. ft. and going up to 100,000 sq. ft… This is different than it was 5 years ago. Larger spaces have more staff and a lot of fixed overhead. However, they also put more money into marketing and have a lot of size options that meet the needs of different size companies. Basically, they have a larger pool of people to attract members from. I have noticed that size doesn’t really effect the B/E monthly cash flow timeline, it effects the timeline of them making back their money.
B/E happens much sooner if you pre-build a community if you are going to have more hot desking and permanent desks. People join these spaces for the people. You need a momentium or else you are selling empty space.
Overall, I think 13 months is a likely scenario of B/E. However, you need to make sure you have enough money to sustain all of the losses that will happen in the months leading up to it…plus some.